Local Content Policies – Historical Evolution of Local Content Policies

The evolution of local content policies has been ongoing over time. It was however a means to improve industrial policy. This was the case during their rigorous implementation as productive development policies (PDPs) during and more so after the Second World War.

From a general economic strategy, local content policies were referred to as import substitution policies/Industrialization (ISP/I). This meant encouraging the development of domestic industry and elimination of foreign goods and services.

It is done through exchange control barriers such as tariffs and quota. In addition, it includes exchange rate policies as well as fiscal and credit policies.

Evolution of Local Content Policies – Start of Industrialization

No doubt that the initial design of ISP was actually at the beginning of industrialization of Europe in the 1750. You should know that this had its origins in the writings of List (1841), which outlined the ‘Infant Industry Argument’.

As the basis for formulation of local content policies is the idea of bringing about industrialisation. In this regard, it is essential that domestic circuits be built in the economy. This can only be achieved by protecting the domestic economy from the world economy.

However, the major facilitation and actual inducement of these policies was as a result of World War I, the Great Depression of the Thirties and more so the  World War II in larger Latin American, Asia and some African countries.

Import substitution policies have distinct objectives in the different countries where they are or have been adopted. There are historical reasons why some of  the countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America did not undergo ISI at the time of, or right after, the European ISI’s but only at a later stage in the 19th Century.

Local Content Policies Evolution – Economic Strategies

The idea of ISP gained further prominence as government interventions increased. In particular, this is towards inward looking strategies which are an attempt by economically less-developed countries to break out of the world division of labour.

In Latin Americas for example, a catalyst to that effect was the United Nations Economic Commission (UNEC) that advocated vehemently for Latin American countries to be self-sufficient in petroleum products and avoid over dependency on exports.

Under this division, Latin America as well as most areas of Asia and Africa specialized in natural resources and the export of food and raw materials. However, they are importing manufactured goods from Europe and the United States.

If anything, throughout most of the fifties and sixties many Latin American as well as Asian governments adopted ISP. This was as the principal method to achieve domestic economic growth and socio-economic modernization.

Local Content Policies in Latin American Countries

Latin American countries grew predominantly on the basis of their  natural resource base. On the other hand, the Asian market grew exponentially as labour-intensive sectors which were facilitated by high level of education.

As a result the concept of protectionism came about and the use of complex system of policies like LCPs was geared to promoting these sectors.

We continue to read and learn more about local content policies evolution.

Brazil Local Content Regulations – A Historical Perspective

Brazil local content regulations are of strategic importance to the country. It enhances domestic industry and promotes jobs as well as increase in incomes.

The promotion of import substitution industries in the fifties and sixties was no doubt an indiscriminate.  There were not attempts to concentrate on industrial sectors which might have had a potential comparative advantage. All industries irrespective of their sizes had protection policies implemented to safe guard the growth in Brazil.

It is thus important to focus on only issues that border on oil and gas industry of which a number of illustrations can be referenced from.

In 1944, for example, the Venezuela government passed a hydrocarbon law that forced oil companies to refine oil in the Republica Bolivariana de Venezuela.

Brazil Local Content Regulations – History

Brazil as country has a long history of import substitution policies. Infact, the government was anxious to promote maximum vertical integration, to promote both final consumer goods industries and intermediate and capital goods sector.

This would thereby give the government national control over most sectors and even more precisely the energy sector.

From 1934, Presidents Vargas regime was eager to pass the mantle of exhaustible natural resources to the nationals. Therefore, the promulgation of the Mine Code declared that mineral resources from the ground belonged to the Federal Union.

In addition, the code declared that foreign and domestic firms alike interested in exploring, production and even refining needed permission from the federal government.

Birth of Petrobras in Brazil

In addition, an announcement that saw an inclusion of local participation came in 1953 by President Vargas when he declared that Petrobras (NOC) should use only Brazilian capital, workers, and know how.

It was a landmark for the people of Brazil and a clear sign of independence from foreign dominance and the beginning of industrialization of the country in the oil and gas industry.

Even though Brazil didn’t have a sophisticated outlook to industrialization in the fifties and sixties, ISPs helped to increase local participation in joint ventures with foreign companies. Brazil was finally able to operate modern technology and developed a capacity and capability to supply the countries needs in the oil and gas industry.

But an even more pressing goal came about in the seventies when Brazil commenced its offshore drilling which resulted to a more national orient model in the eighties.

As a result the transfer of responsibility to the national oil company Petrobras to find and develop a new and national supply industry.

In turn many laws were passed and regulations bodies were set up to foster the growth of the industry. Today it is said that Brazil is one of the countries that focus on new, innovative and complex technologies and even more importantly Petrobras is referred to as one of the most experienced operators in deep waters exploration and production in the world.

But could this be as a result of the higher coefficient by multinational companies in Brazil, a research conducted by Clare Rodriguez shows there is a positive externally from MNCs to supplier which creates a positive knowledge spill over’s which would intern lead to higher total factor productivity.

New Brazil Local Content Regulation

Brazil’s local content regulations have been the subject of much debate. Introduced in the fifth licensing round in 2003, the requirements, along with fines for non-compliance, increased exponentially over subsequent rounds. This resulted in not only stifling offshore development, but also restraining the domestic industry that the regulations were meant to cultivate in the first place.  

In 2017, the Brazilian National Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Agency(ANP) rewrote the terms for the Libra (now Mero) FPSOs. On April 11, 2018, after two years of discussions, the Brazilian National Council for Energy Policy (CNPE) and the ANP published a resolution allowing companies to swap the local content commitments of their existing exploration and production contracts for lower and simpler requirements with reduced fines.

Local Content in Norway

When it comes to local content in Norway, it provides you with an example of great examples in terms of policy. The Norwegian government has introduced legislation necessitating that companies using natural resources also contribute to economic development.

Exploration for offshore oil and gas in Norway began in the mid-1960s and from the 1970s onwards ministers started implementing policy to protect the interests of communities and the economy. Its local content strategy has therefore been held up as an example of good practice for other countries.

Local Content Strategies in Norway

To start with, the government aimed to award contracts to Norwegian bidders when they proved to be competitive in terms of price, quality, delivery time and service. The rationale behind this was to promote the establishment of local industry and this was achieved through cooperation with international oil companies.

When foreign operators started entering the Norwegian industry in the late 1970s, they were strongly encouraged to form research and development (R&D) partnerships and joint development programmes with Norwegian companies and institutions, thus engaging in local content growth.

Overseas firms’ commitment to and strategies for technology transfers were made a crucial and determining factor in the licensing process by the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, once again putting local content programmes at the heart of investments.

Governmental local content policies meant that Norwegian oil and gas supply companies developed leading class, state-of-the-art technologies and, as a result, many international companies have located part of their R&D chain in the country.

The competencies and technological expertise developed as a consequence of Norway’s local content policies also strengthened its position within the international oil industry. Local supply and service providers to oil activities have proved truly competitive by global standards.

Local Content in Norway – A Historical Perspective

Nevertheless a more interesting case study which has been debated over time is the successful implementation of local content. It si a concept of promotion and development of local industry in the oil and gas industry.

Norway has never made specific legislative requirements as to the share of local content in comparison to a country like Brazil. However, the Norwegian government and authorities alike appreciates the choice of local firms if such firms were competitive in price, quality and delivery.

However in the 70s and 80s it can be argued that local firms were chosen even if they were not arguably the most cost effective”

The Norwegian industry was predominantly that of foreign investors; shell, Exxon, Phillips and BP which is a mirror of what most oil and gas industry initially looked like. Nevertheless at a much later stage  there was an establishment of local oil companies like Statoil and Norsk Hydro.

Even though concessions were awarded to foreign oil companies with exclusive rights for exploration, the local companies are tasked to be operators in production licences. This saw a joint participation of foreign and local companies and a result there was a transfer of technology know how.

At the time of bidding, foreign companies could present Norwegian authorise with its list of operators and the Ministry could also add to the list of operators a local company that fits with the requirements. 

In addition there were agreements among the companies both local and foreign to promote research and development cooperation through Norwegian institutions of higher learning.

Nevertheless Norway never diverted its attention from international competition unlike Brazil’s local content development if anything most local firms are internationally competitive due to their geographic proximity, which has in many ways, is said to have deter protectionism of the industry but has eventually improved international standards nonetheless.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Norwegian tax regime was a vital facilitating concept in the 70s. It saw the government take up to 85% of profit margins.

But due to the drop of oil prices in the 80s the tax regime changed by some fraction of 78%. According to a Deloitte report, the ordinary tax amounts to  27% and special tax 51%, that even today Norway oil is still heavily taxed in order for the state to acquire as much profits as possible. 

Norway is argued in many instances to have passed the Mills and Bastable test. The former requires that a protected industry nevertheless should eventually survive international competition without the protectionism,

The latter is a more stringent one and calls for present value of future benefits arising from policy to compensate the present cost of protectionism.

Note: There is an ongoing Upstream Awards process that seeks to recognize and celebrate individuals or companies that are positively promoting local content policies in oil and gas industry in Africa. You should consider attending one of the events this year!

Local Content in Norway – A Historical Case of Local Content Strategy Success

When it comes to local content in Norway, it provides you with an example of great examples in terms of policy. The Norwegian government has introduced legislation necessitating that companies using natural resources also contribute to economic development.

Exploration for offshore oil and gas in Norway began in the mid-1960s and from the 1970s onwards ministers started implementing policy to protect the interests of communities and the economy. Its local content strategy has therefore been held up as an example of good practice for other countries.

Local Content Strategies in Norway

To start with, the government aimed to award contracts to Norwegian bidders when they proved to be competitive in terms of price, quality, delivery time and service. The rationale behind this was to promote the establishment of local industry and this was achieved through cooperation with international oil companies.

When foreign operators started entering the Norwegian industry in the late 1970s, they were strongly encouraged to form research and development (R&D) partnerships and joint development programmes with Norwegian companies and institutions, thus engaging in local content growth.

Overseas firms’ commitment to and strategies for technology transfers were made a crucial and determining factor in the licensing process by the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, once again putting local content programmes at the heart of investments.

Governmental policy meant that Norwegian oil and gas supply companies developed leading class, state-of-the-art technologies and, as a result, many international companies have located part of their R&D chain in the country.

The competencies and technological expertise developed as a consequence of Norway’s local content policy also strengthened its position within the international oil industry. Local supply and service providers to oil activities have proved truly competitive by global standards.

Local Content in Norway – A Historical Perspective

Nevertheless a more interesting case study which has been debated over time is the successful implementation of local content. It is a concept of promotion and development of local industry in the oil and gas industry.

Norway has never made specific legislative requirements as to the share of local content in comparison to a country like Brazil. However, the Norwegian government and authorities alike appreciates the choice of local firms if such firms were competitive in price, quality and delivery.

However in the 70s and 80s it can be argued that local firms were chosen even if they were not arguably the most cost effective”

The Norwegian industry was predominantly that of foreign investors; shell, Exxon, Phillips and BP which is a mirror of what most oil and gas industry initially looked like. Nevertheless at a much later stage  there was an establishment of local oil companies like Statoil and Norsk Hydro.

Local Companies Participation

Even though concessions were awarded to foreign oil companies with exclusive rights for exploration, the local companies are tasked to be operators in production licences.

This saw a joint participation of foreign and local companies and a result there was a transfer of technology know how.

At the time of bidding, foreign companies could present Norwegian authorise with its list of operators and the Ministry could also add to the list of operators a local company that fits with the requirements. 

In addition there were agreements among the companies both local and foreign to promote research and development cooperation through Norwegian institutions of higher learning.

Nevertheless Norway never diverted its attention from international competition unlike Brazil’s local content development. In addition, most local firms are internationally competitive due to their geographic proximity.

This in effect deters protectionism of the industry but has eventually improved international standards nonetheless.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Norwegian tax regime was a vital facilitating concept in the 70s. It saw the government take up to 85% of profit margins.

But due to the drop of oil prices in the 80s, the tax regime changed by some fraction of 78%. According to a Deloitte report, the ordinary tax amounts to  27% and special tax 51%. Today Norway oil is still heavily taxed in order for the state to acquire as much profits as possible. 

Norway passed the Mills and Bastable test. The former requires that a protected industry nevertheless should eventually survive international competition without the protectionism,

The latter which is a more stringent one and calls for present value of future benefits arising from policy to compensate the present cost of protectionism.

Brazil Local Content Regulations – A Historical Perspective

As we look into the oil and gas industry in Brazil, local content regulations are of strategic importance to the country. It enhances domestic industry and promotes jobs as well as increase in incomes.

The promotion of import substitution industries in the fifties and sixties was no doubt an indiscriminate.  There were not attempts to concentrate on industrial sectors which might have had a potential comparative advantage. All industries irrespective of their sizes had protection policies implemented to safe guard the growth in Brazil.

It is thus important to focus on only issues that border on oil and gas industry of which a number of illustrations can be referenced from.

In 1944, for example, the Venezuela government passed a hydrocarbon law that forced oil companies to refine oil in the Republica Bolivariana de Venezuela.

Brazil Local Content Regulations – History

Brazil as country has a long history of import substitution policies. Infact, the government was anxious to promote maximum vertical integration, to promote both final consumer goods industries and intermediate and capital goods sector.

This would thereby give the government national control over most sectors and even more precisely the energy sector.

From 1934, Presidents Vargas regime was eager to pass the mantle of exhaustible natural resources to the nationals. Therefore, the promulgation of the Mine Code declared that mineral resources from the ground belonged to the Federal Union.

In addition, the code declared that foreign and domestic firms alike interested in exploring, production and even refining needed permission from the federal government.

Birth of Petrobras in Brazil

In addition, an announcement that saw an inclusion of local participation came in 1953 by President Vargas when he declared that Petrobras (NOC) should use only Brazilian capital, workers, and know how.

It was a landmark for the people of Brazil and a clear sign of independence from foreign dominance and the beginning of industrialization of the country in the oil and gas industry.

Even though Brazil didn’t have a sophisticated outlook to industrialization in the fifties and sixties, ISPs helped to increase local participation in joint ventures with foreign companies. Brazil was finally able to operate modern technology and developed a capacity and capability to supply the countries needs in the oil and gas industry.

But an even more pressing goal came about in the seventies when Brazil commenced its offshore drilling which resulted to a more national orient model in the eighties.

As a result the transfer of responsibility to the national oil company Petrobras to find and develop a new and national supply industry.

In turn many laws were passed and regulations bodies were set up to foster the growth of the industry. Today it is said that Brazil is one of the countries that focus on new, innovative and complex technologies.

In addition, and more importantly Petrobras is referred to as one of the most experienced operators in deep waters exploration and production in the world.

But could this be as a result of the higher coefficient by multinational companies in Brazil? Research conducted by Clare Rodriguez shows there is a positive externally from MNCs to supplier which creates a positive knowledge spill over’s which would intern lead to higher total factor productivity.

New Brazil Local Content Regulations

Brazil’s local content regulations have been the subject of much debate. Introduced in the fifth licensing round in 2003, the requirements, along with fines for non-compliance, increased exponentially over subsequent rounds.

This resulted in not only stifling offshore development, but also restraining the domestic industry that the regulations were meant to cultivate in the first place.  

In 2017, the Brazilian National Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Agency(ANP) rewrote the terms for the Libra (now Mero) FPSOs.

On April 11, 2018, after two years of discussions, the Brazilian National Council for Energy Policy (CNPE) and the ANP published a resolution allowing companies to swap the local content commitments of their existing exploration and production contracts for lower and simpler requirements with reduced fines.

You check out; Can local content spur economic prosperity of a country?

Local Content Requirements – Background of Local Content Policies

Local content requirements were not an objective in itself.  It was however a means to improve industrial policy. This was the case during their rigorous implementation as productive development policies (PDPs) during and more so after the Second World War.

From a general economic strategy, local content policies were referred to as import substitution policies/Industrialization (ISP/I). This meant encouraging the development of domestic industry and elimination of foreign goods and services.

It is done through exchange control barriers such as tariffs and quota. In addition, it includes exchange rate policies as well as fiscal and credit policies.

Evolution of Local Content Requirements – Start of Industrialization

No doubt that the initial design of ISP was actually at the beginning of industrialization of Europe in the 1750. You should know that this had its origins in the writings of List (1841), which outlined the ‘Infant Industry Argument’.

As the basis for formulation of local content policies is the idea of bringing about industrialisation. In this regard, it is essential that domestic circuits be built in the economy. This can only be achieved by protecting the domestic economy from the world economy.

However, the major facilitation and actual inducement of these policies was as a result of World War I, the Great Depression of the Thirties and more so the  World War II in larger Latin American, Asia and some African countries.

Import substitution policies have distinct objectives in the different countries where they are or have been adopted. There are historical reasons why some of  the countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America did not undergo ISI at the time of, or right after, the European ISI’s but only at a later stage in the 19th Century.

Local Content Requirements – Economic Strategies

The idea of ISP gained further prominence as government interventions increased. In particular, this is towards inward looking strategies which are an attempt by economically less-developed countries to break out of the world division of labour.

In Latin Americas for example, a catalyst to that effect was the United Nations Economic Commission (UNEC) that advocated vehemently for Latin American countries to be self-sufficient in petroleum products and avoid over dependency on exports.

Under this division, Latin America as well as most areas of Asia and Africa specialized in natural resources and the export of food and raw materials. However, they are importing manufactured goods from Europe and the United States.

If anything, throughout most of the fifties and sixties many Latin American as well as Asian governments adopted ISP. This was as the principal method to achieve domestic economic growth and socio-economic modernization.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Latin American countries grew predominantly on the basis of their  natural resource base. On the other hand, the Asian market grew exponentially as labour-intensive sectors which were facilitated by high level of education.

As a result the concept of protectionism came about and the use of complex system of policies like LCPs was geared to promoting these sectors.

We continue to read and learn more about local content policies evolution.

Oil Prices in 2020 – 3 Factors That Might Affect Fuel Prices in Kenya

Oil prices in 2020 will be affected by a number of factors. But first, did you know that Lake Turkana, also known as Jade Sea, was originally named Lake Rudolf on 6th March 1888?

The lake was renamed Lake Turkana in 1975 by the then President, Jomo Kenyatta. Did you know that?

Now that I have your attention, Happy New Year!

Allow me to share with you my thoughts on what to expect in terms of oil prices in 2020. This is in turn going to affect your day to day life as you know it.

Oil prices in 2020 have recorded the strongest start to a calendar year since 2014, with crude oil opening at over $60 a barrel.

For the un-initiated, the prices of oil collapsed from almost $120 a barrel in June 2014 due to weak demand, strong dollar and a booming shale production in the United States.

I think there are three factors that will affect oil prices in 2020 in Kenya. They include the following;

Saudi Arabia and Russia will affect oil prices in 2020

The worlds biggest oil producers, Russia and Saudi Arabia, have continued to strengthen their collaboration in the oil and gas industry. This is one relationship that we should watch closely because it signals a strategic partnership between two oil-rich states.

Cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Russia ensures that crude prices are propped up.

Saudi Arabia is very intent on listing Saudi Aramco. As such the country is quite motivated to keep the oil prices going up. High crude oil prices means that the consumer fuel prices in Kenya will be high as well.

The risk to this outlook could become apparent if Russia stops cooperating which has been a significant tipping factor in the production cuts.

How will oil prices in 2020 be affected production cuts?

In a meeting at Vienna, Austria in May 2017, OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreed to continue with crude oil production cuts until the end of 2018.

The cuts which started in January 2017 are meant to clear the global over supply of crude oil.

It is also worth noting that the United States crude inventories have dropped by over 20% from the highs recorded in March last year.

The current deal among the producers is to cut supply by about 1,8 million barrel per day (bpd) in an effort to boost oil prices. However, there is high likelihood of another price collapse if the producers in the United States increase production due to higher prices.

The crude oil export limitation agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia has been a success in strengthening the crude price and also in market rebalancing, removing the volatility out of the system.

Oil and Gas Project Sanction

It is forecasted that there will be an increase in projects from the 2015 low.

The continued recovery of the upstream companies will lead to an increase in their production. This is going to help the midstream and the oilfield services businesses. This is a boom to the supporting ecosystems

Within Kenya and East Africa, the oil and gas exploration companies will continue with their upstream activities motivated by rising oil prices, as well as embark on the development phase in Turkana in Kenya and Hoima in Uganda.

The proposed construction of 1,445 kilometer long crude oil pipeline will commence once FID is reached. From Hoima in western Uganda to Tanga sea port in Tanzania, the pipeline will carry 216,000 barrels of crude oil daily.

In Kenya will equally be speeding up the process that will see the construction of the crude oil pipeline from Turkana oilfields to Lamu.  A joint development study agreement has already been signed.

The 865 km pipeline will cost about $1.2 billion and expected to be complete by 2022

Moving Forward

During the 2014/2016 period, over $1 trillion was taken out of industry spending from 2015 to 2020. This means that cuts are over and upstream companies will seek to grow their profitability and operate at lower prices. Overall, this makes the industry better and more efficient.

Projects worth as much as $200 billion are in the pipeline, both onshore and offshore.

For example, Saudi Aramco has announced plans to invest $300 billion in upstream oil and gas projects over the next 10 years. With these investments, the oilfield services sector will to continue recovering in 2020 in tandem with the increase in the oil prices.

This bill introduces a raft of rules and guidelines into the country’s nascent upstream oil and gas industry, as a means of protecting and promoting local growth.

The global rise in crude oil prices will mean that you as a consumers and motorists will fork out much more from your pockets for fuel or petro-related products.

The average landed cost for the products increase with the increase in the crude oil prices. It would a double tragedy if the Kenyan shilling was to weaken during the course of the year.

The latest price update by the EPRA reflects these changes.

Conclusion

In conclusion, given the global and regional geopolitics as well as economics, 2020 promises to be very interesting in the upstream oil and gas industry.

Oil prices in 2020 will be keenly watched as this is a major contributor to the global energy matrix.

A major event, the upstream awards, continues to bring stakeholders in the oil and gas industry together in the country. Later in the year, upstream awards is coming to a city near you.

I am inviting you to celebrate with us.

Winning an Award – 6 Reasons Why Winning an Upstream Award is Great.

Winning an award at the prestigious Upstream Awards require attention and efforts. This is important when submitting an entry or when nominating someone or a company.

I was asked recently if winning an upstream award is good for you or your business. It is important to note that upstream awards are a peer-to-peer review mechanism. The awards focus on individuals or businesses that are contributing positively to the upstream oil and gas industry in Africa.

Here are six reasons I think upstream awards would benefit you:

Winning an Award Validates Your Work.

The journey starts by gaining validation from a number of sources, friends, business acquaintances and eventually through independent judges.

The process toward the upstream awards is inclusive and involves nominations from industry peers, then short-listing and eventful judging process.

Submitting your work, programs or activities you have done in the upstream oil and gas industry is a great way to showcase yourself or your organization.

Winning an Award Motivates your staff & key partners. 

You work long, hard and are passionate about what you do. These upstream awards gala event  also provide an opportunity for your team to have a night out.

These awards validates that you are on the right track, whether you win or not. It is great to be shortlisted

Focuses you on positive contribution to the industry. 

Upstream awards look at your personal or corporate contribution to the oil and gas industry. Therefore, entry into the awards requires you to be concise and clear on the activities you are undertaking.

You need to be able to articulate your contribution in a simple and clear way so the judges get the key messages.

Sharing this with your team and others helps you stay on message.

Confirmation for Investors, new & old.

Depending on the involvement of your investors, they also want confirmation they are backing a winner along the journey. It also helps you to be noticed by new investors.

Shows your potential customers you are well regarded. 

Your customers before they even buy the first product want to know your company and product is validated by the industry. That you are respected, trusted and a proven supplier.

Participating and being part of the upstream oil and gas awards is a clear indication to the market that the oil and gas industry regards you highly.

Winning an Award is a Great for your PR Efforts

This is the perfect opportunity to promote your company, or even launch a product at the upstream awards. Local and national press typically announce that you’ve won these prestigious awards and people are very keen to read more about your success.

Conclusion

In conclusion, I have to say there is great joy and pride in winning an award, especially on something you have worked on for many years.

I know there are many more reasons but thought this might help provide some ideas and motivate you to apply to be part of upstream awards this year.

The past awards event were great, and was covered by standard media group

I would love to hear from you. Drop me a comment below.